Bird flu may cut energy demand
|
|
Bird flu may reduce world energy demand should it evolve into a form that is easily transmitted among humans, possibly by more than a million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs said in a report.
“Should the flu mutate into a true global pandemic, the economic implications would be profound, potentially reducing energy demand by well over one million barrels per day,” the U.S. investment bank said.
World oil use is currently about 85 million barrels per day, according to data issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Goldman Sachs noted that the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 led to a sharp reduction in civilian airline schedules in Asia as demand for tourist and business travel declined.
The report said bird flu would only have an impact on metals demand if it developed into a global pandemic and damaged world economic activity.
“In that case, metals prices would likely suffer, while gold could benefit from its safe-haven status in times of uncertainty,” the report said.
Goldman Sachs said, however, that it expected the impact of bird flu on grains consumption to be very modest with the impact on feed use of a reduction in poultry consumption offset by increased demand for other meats.
The report noted that beef required three times as much feed per pound of meat and pork twice as much as chicken.
“We believe that the net impact of Asian avian influenza on grain demand is likely to be very modest. While feed consumption of poultry is likely to decline, increased demand for meat…such as beef and pork will probably offset the lower demand from poultry.”
The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has so far led to the slaughter of millions of birds in Asia and has killed more than 60 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia.
Print Version
Tell-a-Friend comments powered by Disqus
